Is Zangersheide really number one?

It is said that there are lies, damn lies and statistics, and the recent to-ing and fro-ing about the standings of the various studbooks would seem to indicate that depending how you want to use them, the statistics that make up the FEI competition standings can be massaged in a number of different ways to produce quite different results…

Thus in the Feb/March 2011 edition of Z Magazine, we have a feature by Jac Remijnse of Sport Horse Breeding, which proves that the most successful jumping studbook is not the KWPN, as the latest WBFSH standings would have us believe, but Zangersheide (why aren’t we surprised?) Jac arrives at this conclusion by considering the top 300 showjumpers on the FEI standings for 2010, and then calculating the number of competitors from each studbook against the number of foals born in those books in the period 1995 to 2002. I think the decision to limit the group to 300 is a wise one. Not all international competitions are of an equal standard, and once you go beyond the top 300 I suspect you are including some very sub-standard performances.

The KWPN headed the latest WBFSH jumping standings, but this was from a base of 51,785 jumping bred foals. On Jac’s alternative standings, Zangersheide is number one with 19 competitors out of a total of 8,138 foals (a success rate of 0.2335%).

Holstein is number 2 on both the WBFSH and Sport Horse Breeding tables with 41 competitors out of 21,296 (0.1925%), while the Belgian BWP studbook, moves up from 4^th on the WBFSH standings to 3^rd, producing 41 top-three-hundred international competitors out of 23,290 foals (0.176%). The KWPN drops to 4^th with 75 out of 51,785 (0.1448%). The Rheinland studbook rockets up the standings, 15^th with the WBFSH list, but 5^th on the new calculations, with 4 international competitors from 3376 foals (0.1185%). At this point reason starts to protest – just who are these heroes who have come galloping out of Germany’s south to grab 5^th place in the world, while that jumping powerhouse, the Selle Français stud book, languishes at number 10?!

And this I think is one of the problems with the Sport Horse Breeding methodology, there is no reward for the quality of the performances. While the FEI points are adjusted not just for placings but also for the different levels of competition to reward the horses that go well at the toughest competitions, Jac’s figures treat all places in the top 300 as equal. The best of the Rheinland quartet is Levito who ranks 48^th on the FEI rankings, the result of a solid career with Lars Nieberg, their best result being a 1.50 class win at Bremen CSI****. Levito is by the KWPN stallion, Lupicor out of a mare by another Dutch stallion, Indorado.

The next most successful Rheinlander, ranked 228, is Acomet, whose best performance has been a 7^th in the Grand Prix at Arezzo CSI***. Ridden by the Swiss rider, Theo Muff ,the horse has gained many of its points in the smaller Swiss shows. Acomet is by the Westfalien stallion, Arpeggio out of a mare by the great Westfalien, Pilot. Then comes Lassen Peak, ranked 273^rd, whose best performance was a 2^nd in a 1.45 class at Bremen CSI**** with another Swiss rider, Rebecca Golasch. Lassen Peak is by the Holsteiner, Lucky Luke out of a Westfalien mare, by Polydor.  The final Rheinland representative is Perry Lee, a 1.45 horse with Christian Ahlmann. Perry Lee is by the Westfalien stallion, Pythagoras out of a Westfalien mare by Bariton. Perry Lee is ranked 299^th.

And yet we are supposed to believe that in some way or another, the stud book that produced these four horses is superior to the Selle Français studbook that produced 46 representatives in the top 300 including Mylord Carthago*HN, Kellemoi de Pepita, Itot du Chateau and Quick Study, all of whom are in the top 20 on the FEI rankings.

If we look at the top 20 jumpers on the standings, we find three from the KWPN, four from both the BWP and the Selle Français books and five from Holstein. If we look at the top 50, there are seven Holsteiners, nine Selle Français, 11 BWP, 12 KWPN and two representatives from the world’s ‘most successful’ studbook, Zangersheide.

So why am I worried about the Sport Horse Breeding formula, why does it feel ‘wrong’? Yes, it is a good idea to recognize smaller stud books that are producing a larger proportion of successful horses, but is four out of 3376, a success rate of 0.1185%, a meaningful result? I wonder if we are down in random chance territory. Perhaps the more intriguing question is how is it that the French book with its history of solid jumping breeding, ‘only’ produces 46 international competitors (this is the second highest number, behind the Dutch with 75, followed by Holstein and Belgium with 41 each) in the top 300 out of a foal base of 77,170?

Perhaps this is something to do with that other factor that never seems to be adequately taken into account when considering studbook success – access to top level trainers and the standard and conditions of competition. I can remember Eric Navet telling me that one of the problems in France was that there were a limited number of trainers capable of taking horses to the top.

Is it true that the larger the population, the greater the chance the studbook has of doing well in the rankings? Given that there are a limited number of jumping horses that get the opportunity to compete internationally, perhaps this keeps the number of horses earning FEI points in each country approximately equal. In France, there might well be another 30 or 40 horses competing in national competitions, horses that would be regarded as international competitors in countries where the standard of competition is lower, and gain places in the FEI rankings. Similarly in Germany, there are only so many spots available for dressage horses at international dressage competitions, yet I am sure there is a large group of national competitors in Germany that would be international competitors, and FEI points earners, in other countries.

The other factor that we should consider is, are we talking about studbooks or registries? As we saw with the ‘Rheinlanders’, there was precious little in their breeding that reflected the history or philosophy of the Rheinland stud book: one ¾ Dutch gelding, one ¾ Westfalien gelding and a ¾ Westfalian stallion and a ½  Holsteiner / ½ Westfalien stallion.

It’s worse when we look at the example of Zangersheide. Despite the fact that Leon Melchior’s breeding operation commenced in the 1970’s and morphed into the Zangersheide Studbook just on 20 years ago, the horses flying the Z flag seem to owe very little to anything that recognizably forms a Z breeding program. The highest ranked Z representative is Nabab’s Son (in 23^rd) – he is by the Selle Français, Nabab de Reve out of a Thoroughbred mare, Criquette. His best result has been a win in a 1.55 class at Hamburg CSI*****. The next highest ranked Z horse, in 26^th, is Hallmark Elite by the Holsteiner, Lord Byron out of a Dutch mare by Renville. His best result to date was a 2^nd in the Grand Prix of Toronto, although he did produce a double clear in the winning Irish Nations Cup team at Aachen in 2010.

Then we have to go all the way down to =71^st before we find another with the Z brand, Cabreado S. E. His best result so far has been an 8^th in a 1.55m class in Doha. He is by the Holsteiner, Cannabis (Contender / Sylvester) out of a mare by the BWP stallion, Gold Sky (Black Sky xx / Gotthard). In 100^th on the standings we find Cha Cha Z, a member of Belgium’s winning Nations Cup team at Gijon CSIO***** with Judy-Ann Melchior. The pair was also third in a World Cup qualifier at Vigo. Again there is nothing that says ‘Z’ about her breeding. Although her sire, Carthago was leased by the Holsteiner Verband to Zangersheide for a number of years, he was bred by Erhard Krampitz, a card carrying member of the Holsteiner Verband, and Cha Cha’s dam, Bee Chera is by the Dutch sire, Beach Boy out of a mare of Westfalien / Dutch breeding.

I could keep going down the list, but I think the point is made. Of the 14 ‘Z’ horses in the winning total, not one is by a stallion bred in the Zangersheide program (the ones with ‘Z’ tacked on to their names were all re-christened later in life), and only two are out of mares bred from Zangersheide lines, Intertoy Z  and Cartoon Z.  Sure, all the successful studbooks have benefitted by bringing in ‘outsiders’ (Cor de la Bryère to Holstein, Abglanz to Hanover, Furioso II to Oldenburg, Nimmerdor to Holland…) but the test of how successfully a stud book is operating is how well this blood is transmuted through the breeding philosophy and management of that studbook. Thus while in the early years, the KWPN grabbed its jumping blood from France and Holstein, and its dressage blood from Germany, look at the depth of genuinely Dutch breeding in this year’s KWPN stallion licensing champions.

The champion jumping stallion, Warrant is by Numero Uno who combines the blood of Libero and Lord Calando, and is out of a Nimmerdor / Purioso mare. However, it is the dressage stallion that indicates just how quickly the Dutch – traditionally jumping enthusiasts – have taken to breeding for the dressage arena. The champion, Diebrecht is by Zitzi Top who is a son of Grand Prix performer, Tango who is a son of Grand Prix performer, Jazz who is a son of Grand Prix performer, Cocktail, out of a mare by Grand Prix performer, Ferro. Warrant is out of a mare who competed to Advanced level dressage, and who is by the Ferro son, Kennedy, who competed Prix St Georges.

Perhaps for a stud book to be considered for a place on the rankings, a minimum of 50% of the points should be earned by horses that are at least second generation products of that studbook…

Obviously a large part of any studbook’s success must be measured by the quality of the breeding stallions it produces. If we look at the sires of the top 20 jumpers on the rankings, we find one BWP, two KWPN, four Selle Français and seven Holsteiners. In the sires of the top 50, there are five Belgian stallions, nine Dutch, 12 Selle Français and 15 Holsteiners with the Z book contributing just one, Lux Z, and while he is by the Holsteiner, Lord Corlando, he is a genuine Z product in that his dam is by one of the most successful stallions born at Zangersheide, Ahorn Z (by Almé out of the Holsteiner foundation mare, Heureka).

Just to prove that we can all play the numbers game and get different results, consider the following. Again, looking at the top 300, if we take into account the average number of points that each of the representatives of the various studbooks have earned in the year’s competitions – which is surely the best measure of their talent as jumpers – then we can revise the standings yet again.

Under this formula, the number one studbook is the BWP with 41 representatives earning a total of 26,179 points at an average of 638.51219. Second to Holstein, 41 jumpers, 25,021 aggregate at an average of 610.26829. Third to the Selle Français book, 46 for 26,890 at an average of 584.56521. Fourth the KWPN, 75 competitors earned 41,716 points at an average of 556.21333. The 19 Zangersheide representatives in the top 300 between them earned 10263 points with an average of 540.15789 which puts them into 5^th position.

Now I am not wanting to argue that my formula is ‘better’ than the WBFSH formula or the Sport Horse Breeding formula, but merely to demonstrate that the results are capable of a number of interpretations. I will leave it to the readers to measure the various results against their ‘gut feeling’ for which of the studbooks is producing the goods…

Certainly my instinctive feeling is that the Sport Horse Breeding ranking for dressage is just plain wrong. It has Denmark at number one, with 37 competitors at a success rate of 0.2709% from a foal base of 13,659, which is fair enough. The Danes have adopted a flexible and progressive breeding philosophy and taken the best of the best genes from Germany and Holland to produce very impressive modern horses. But I don’t think my friends in Elmshorn are about to race out and start promoting Holstein as the second best place in the world to find dressage horses on the basis of 12 competitors out of 5324 candidates for a success rate of 0.2254%.

For a start there is a little worry about how we get to the figure of ‘5324’ dressage orientated Holsteiner foals. In Denmark it is not a problem, where they have clearly divided their breeding populations into separate dressage and jumping groups – but there is no such formal division in Holstein. In his article in Z Magazine, Jac Remijnse remarks that he came to his figures with the assistance of the studbooks – it would be interesting to find out if the Hanoverian studbook for instance would have assigned their two greatest dressage stars of recent years, Satchmo and Salinero to the dressage or the jumping populations…?

Certainly looking at the dozen Holsteiners that form the basis of the revised calculations, they would seem to be the standard Holstein jumping mix with nothing to indicate a dressage intent. If you were offered them as foals, then looking at their papers, you would expect them to jump.

The question is – what is the purpose of these rankings? Are we playing cute PR games – my stud book is better than your stud book –  or are we genuinely looking for an indication of where the cutting edge of breeding is to be found? I would think that anyone with an appreciation for where dressage breeding is today, would feel that the original WBFSH dressage stud book standings with the KWPN at 1, Hannover at 2, the Danes at 3, Oldenburg at 4 and Westfalia at 5, is a better fit to the breeding reality than Jac’s list which goes Denmark, Holstein, Oldenburg, KWPN, Sweden, BWP, Hannover, with Westfalia (which in the opinion of many is the coming dressage destination at the moment) in 8^th place.

Looking at both the lists, we again see the problem that we saw with the jumpers, where the book rather than the blood is highlighted. In the jumping, we saw that Holstein supplied the genetic base for many of the other books, while on both dressage tables, the influence of Trakehner blood in the shaping of the modern dressage horse, is not reflected.

On the WBFSH standings, the Trakehner book comes in at 9^th place, on the Sport Horse Breeding list, they do worse, 13^th place. Yet if we look at the top 20 performers, four of them are by Trakehner sires.

The dominant group of sires of the top 20 are representatives of the Hanoldfalien breed that forms the basis of dressage breeding throughout the world under a host of different labels and brands, and once again, the Hanoverian Oldenburg mix that is the Donnerhall sire line stands out, accounting for five of the sires of the top 20… which may just indicate that trying to neatly categorize success by studbook may not really make all that much sense, but I guess it will provide some of us which lots of innocent fun for many years to come… just so long as we don’t take it all too seriously.